© Ross D. Franklin / AP Photo Tara Immen of Happy Valley, Ariz., cheers as she waits for U.S. President Donald Trump to arrive at a campaign rally at Phoenix Goodyear Airport on Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2020.
With the U.S. presidential election just days away, the Canadian government is steeling itself for the weeks of uncertainty that could ensue if the result is unclear or contested.
In the corridors of power in Ottawa, planning for this election started early, according to a senior government official who requested anonymity.
Those preparations have been intense, generating a flurry of briefings and threat assessments, as Canada braces for all scenarios.
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Much hinges on how U.S. President Donald Trump will react on Election Night and the weeks that follow.
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Throughout his presidency, Trump has shattered expectations of normal political behaviour.
He now appears willing to defy one of the most basic of democratic norms, having refused to say unequivocally whether he'll accept the results of the election if he loses.
John Bolton, Trump's former national security adviser, warns the president won't leave graciously if defeated.
'There could be turmoil,' Bolton said. 'If he thinks confusion and chaos can help him hang on, can help affect recounts and contests, I think there's every prospect he'll engage in it.'
U.S. election highlighting need for 'unified' response
In the aftermath of the election, multiple sources told Global News that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his team will lean heavily on Canada's embassy in Washington and especially on Ambassador Kirsten Hillman.
Her predecessor, David MacNaughton, said Hillman has likely been in near-daily communication with the Prime Minister's Office, funnelling information that she has gleaned from her contacts in the White House, Congress, the U.S. State Department and American security agencies.
Back in Ottawa, the prime minister will want premiers and opposition parties on side too, MacNaughton said.
'When we're dealing with something as important as our relationship with the United States, we need to be unified,' he said, citing the non-partisan Team Canada approach that was taken when renegotiating NAFTA.
'That's what's going to be necessary, regardless of what happens with the outcome of this election.'
Read more: Why this year's U.S. election could take weeks to decide
But so long as there's any doubt about the result, the prime minister would be wise to keep his powder dry, said Roland Paris, Trudeau's former foreign policy and defence adviser.
'Canadian prime ministers rarely have anything to gain by involving themselves in U.S. domestic politics, and they often have quite a bit to lose,' he said.
Aside from reaffirming Canada's confidence in the U.S. electoral process, the federal government will do all it can to avoid being drawn into the political firestorm raging south of the border.
Preparing for civil unrest and the 'nightmare scenario'
Still, multiple sources said Canada can't ignore the possibility of civil unrest and violence in the United States.
For 10 years, Ward Elcock served as Canada's top spy, leading the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS).
He said there's no question that Trump's heated rhetoric has fuelled the resurgence of far-right extremism in the United States: a phenomenon that poses a serious threat as Americans decide who should lead their country for the next four years.
'There may well be some people who do weird things in the aftermath of the election, particularly if — as seems likely at this point — Mr. Trump loses and loses badly,' Elcock said.
'There may be some of his supporters who do get pushed into violent scenarios that are hard for us to imagine.'
Just one month ahead of the election, a report by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security called white supremacists 'the most persistent and lethal threat' in the country.
Read more: ‘Escalating' far-right violence in U.S. to pose greatest terrorist threat: experts
That threat is on Canada's radar too, according to Thomas Juneau, a professor of international affairs at the University of Ottawa and a former analyst with the Department of National Defence.
'One scenario that is always a nightmare scenario for Canada is the issue of security threats coming from Canada, crossing the Canadian-American border and reaching the U.S.,' he said.
'The fear on our side is always that the response on the American side will be to close the border, which economically would be devastating for us.'
Speaking on the condition of anonymity, a senior national security source told Global News the federal government is quietly assessing the risk that election-related violence in the United States could spill over into Canada.
As a result, Canadian intelligence agencies will closely monitor potential flashpoints. Those include border states like Michigan, where the FBI recently foiled a militia plot to kidnap the state's governor, and Washington, where waves of anti-racism protests may have attracted more far-right extremists.
'Not our first rodeo' managing U.S. disruption: experts
Despite the uncertainty swirling around the election, experts agree that ties between the Canadian and American defence and intelligence communities likely won't be affected.
'The underlying relationship is very strong,' Elcock said, describing it as one of interdependence.
Car mechanic simulator 2018 - dodge dlc for mac. 'We may be a smaller partner, but we're not necessarily just a bit player,' he said.
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And what if Trump were to issue wild orders in the post-election chaos — demanding, for example, that U.S. agencies cease all intelligence-sharing with allies?
Several intelligence sources said the U.S. defence and security apparatus likely won't take orders that it considers illegitimate.
'The United States is not disintegrating,' Elcock said.
'It may need a period of rest and rejuvenation after Mr. Trump passes from the scene, as inevitably he will at some point. But the reality is most of those organizations are still there and they're still capable.'
In other words, Trump may be disruptive, but the U.S. military and intelligence community is still run by professionals who won't toe the president's line if he goes rogue.
No matter what happens on Nov. 3, the overwhelming consensus appears to be that Americans will find a way to endure.
'This is not our first rodeo,' Bolton said.
'We've had bitterly contested elections before and we've gotten through it — and we'll get through this one, too.' Xcom 2: resistance warrior pack crack.
See this and other original stories about our world on The New Reality airing Saturday nights on Global TV, and online.
© Paul Bersebach A woman participates in a pro-Trump demonstration in Santa Ana, California on Monday (Paul Bersebach/The Orange County Register/AP)The US presidential transition was thrown into tumult on Monday, with Donald Trump blocking government co-operation with Joe Biden's team and Attorney General William Barr authorising the Justice Department to investigate allegations of electoral fraud.
Some Republicans, including Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell, rallied behind Mr Trump's efforts to fight the election results.
Few in the party acknowledged Joe Biden's victory, or condemned Mr Trump's other controversial move on Monday – his firing of Defence Secretary Mark Esper.
The developments cast doubt on whether the nation would witness the same kind of smooth transition of power that has long anchored its democracy.
The Electoral College is scheduled to formally confirm Mr Biden's victory on December 14 and the Democrat will be sworn into office in late January.
© Provided by PA Media Attorney General William Barr (centre) leaves the offices of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Capitol Hill on Monday (Susan Walsh/AP)On Monday, Mr Barr authorised the Justice Department to investigate 'substantial' allegations of voter irregularities and election fraud, though no widespread instances of that type of trouble exist. In fact, election officials from both political parties have publicly stated that voting went well. International observers also confirmed there were no serious irregularities.
Biden campaign lawyer Bob Bauer said Mr Barr's memorandum authorising investigations 'will only fuel the ‘specious, speculative, fanciful or far-fetched claims' he professes to guard against'.
Mr Biden pressed forward with plans to build his administration, assembling a team of experts to face the surging pandemic. But the federal agency that needs to greenlight the beginnings of the transition of power held off on taking that step. And the White House moved to crack down on those not deemed sufficiently loyal as Mr Trump continued to refuse to concede the race.
Mr Trump remained out of sight at the White House, with conversations ongoing about how the defeated president would spend the coming days and weeks as he challenged the people's verdict.
© Provided by PA Media (PA Graphics)The former reality TV star is not expected to formally concede but is likely to grudgingly vacate the White House at the end of his term, according to several people around him.
Also being discussed is the possibility of more campaign-style rallies as Mr Trump tries to keep his supporters fired up despite his defeat. It was possible they would feature his family and prominent supporters, but not the president himself.
The removal of Mr Esper, the Pentagon chief, was expected by some aides to be the first of several firings by Mr Trump. Others believed to now be vulnerable include FBI Director Christopher Wray, CIA head Gina Haspel and infectious disease expert Dr Anthony Fauci.
'There could be turmoil,' Bolton said. 'If he thinks confusion and chaos can help him hang on, can help affect recounts and contests, I think there's every prospect he'll engage in it.'
U.S. election highlighting need for 'unified' response
In the aftermath of the election, multiple sources told Global News that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his team will lean heavily on Canada's embassy in Washington and especially on Ambassador Kirsten Hillman.
Her predecessor, David MacNaughton, said Hillman has likely been in near-daily communication with the Prime Minister's Office, funnelling information that she has gleaned from her contacts in the White House, Congress, the U.S. State Department and American security agencies.
Back in Ottawa, the prime minister will want premiers and opposition parties on side too, MacNaughton said.
'When we're dealing with something as important as our relationship with the United States, we need to be unified,' he said, citing the non-partisan Team Canada approach that was taken when renegotiating NAFTA.
'That's what's going to be necessary, regardless of what happens with the outcome of this election.'
Read more: Why this year's U.S. election could take weeks to decide
But so long as there's any doubt about the result, the prime minister would be wise to keep his powder dry, said Roland Paris, Trudeau's former foreign policy and defence adviser.
'Canadian prime ministers rarely have anything to gain by involving themselves in U.S. domestic politics, and they often have quite a bit to lose,' he said.
Aside from reaffirming Canada's confidence in the U.S. electoral process, the federal government will do all it can to avoid being drawn into the political firestorm raging south of the border.
Preparing for civil unrest and the 'nightmare scenario'
Still, multiple sources said Canada can't ignore the possibility of civil unrest and violence in the United States.
For 10 years, Ward Elcock served as Canada's top spy, leading the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS).
He said there's no question that Trump's heated rhetoric has fuelled the resurgence of far-right extremism in the United States: a phenomenon that poses a serious threat as Americans decide who should lead their country for the next four years.
'There may well be some people who do weird things in the aftermath of the election, particularly if — as seems likely at this point — Mr. Trump loses and loses badly,' Elcock said.
'There may be some of his supporters who do get pushed into violent scenarios that are hard for us to imagine.'
Just one month ahead of the election, a report by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security called white supremacists 'the most persistent and lethal threat' in the country.
Read more: ‘Escalating' far-right violence in U.S. to pose greatest terrorist threat: experts
That threat is on Canada's radar too, according to Thomas Juneau, a professor of international affairs at the University of Ottawa and a former analyst with the Department of National Defence.
'One scenario that is always a nightmare scenario for Canada is the issue of security threats coming from Canada, crossing the Canadian-American border and reaching the U.S.,' he said.
'The fear on our side is always that the response on the American side will be to close the border, which economically would be devastating for us.'
Speaking on the condition of anonymity, a senior national security source told Global News the federal government is quietly assessing the risk that election-related violence in the United States could spill over into Canada.
As a result, Canadian intelligence agencies will closely monitor potential flashpoints. Those include border states like Michigan, where the FBI recently foiled a militia plot to kidnap the state's governor, and Washington, where waves of anti-racism protests may have attracted more far-right extremists.
'Not our first rodeo' managing U.S. disruption: experts
Despite the uncertainty swirling around the election, experts agree that ties between the Canadian and American defence and intelligence communities likely won't be affected.
'The underlying relationship is very strong,' Elcock said, describing it as one of interdependence.
Car mechanic simulator 2018 - dodge dlc for mac. 'We may be a smaller partner, but we're not necessarily just a bit player,' he said.
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And what if Trump were to issue wild orders in the post-election chaos — demanding, for example, that U.S. agencies cease all intelligence-sharing with allies?
Several intelligence sources said the U.S. defence and security apparatus likely won't take orders that it considers illegitimate.
'The United States is not disintegrating,' Elcock said.
'It may need a period of rest and rejuvenation after Mr. Trump passes from the scene, as inevitably he will at some point. But the reality is most of those organizations are still there and they're still capable.'
In other words, Trump may be disruptive, but the U.S. military and intelligence community is still run by professionals who won't toe the president's line if he goes rogue.
No matter what happens on Nov. 3, the overwhelming consensus appears to be that Americans will find a way to endure.
'This is not our first rodeo,' Bolton said.
'We've had bitterly contested elections before and we've gotten through it — and we'll get through this one, too.' Xcom 2: resistance warrior pack crack.
See this and other original stories about our world on The New Reality airing Saturday nights on Global TV, and online.
© Paul Bersebach A woman participates in a pro-Trump demonstration in Santa Ana, California on Monday (Paul Bersebach/The Orange County Register/AP)The US presidential transition was thrown into tumult on Monday, with Donald Trump blocking government co-operation with Joe Biden's team and Attorney General William Barr authorising the Justice Department to investigate allegations of electoral fraud.
Some Republicans, including Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell, rallied behind Mr Trump's efforts to fight the election results.
Few in the party acknowledged Joe Biden's victory, or condemned Mr Trump's other controversial move on Monday – his firing of Defence Secretary Mark Esper.
The developments cast doubt on whether the nation would witness the same kind of smooth transition of power that has long anchored its democracy.
The Electoral College is scheduled to formally confirm Mr Biden's victory on December 14 and the Democrat will be sworn into office in late January.
© Provided by PA Media Attorney General William Barr (centre) leaves the offices of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Capitol Hill on Monday (Susan Walsh/AP)On Monday, Mr Barr authorised the Justice Department to investigate 'substantial' allegations of voter irregularities and election fraud, though no widespread instances of that type of trouble exist. In fact, election officials from both political parties have publicly stated that voting went well. International observers also confirmed there were no serious irregularities.
Biden campaign lawyer Bob Bauer said Mr Barr's memorandum authorising investigations 'will only fuel the ‘specious, speculative, fanciful or far-fetched claims' he professes to guard against'.
Mr Biden pressed forward with plans to build his administration, assembling a team of experts to face the surging pandemic. But the federal agency that needs to greenlight the beginnings of the transition of power held off on taking that step. And the White House moved to crack down on those not deemed sufficiently loyal as Mr Trump continued to refuse to concede the race.
Mr Trump remained out of sight at the White House, with conversations ongoing about how the defeated president would spend the coming days and weeks as he challenged the people's verdict.
© Provided by PA Media (PA Graphics)The former reality TV star is not expected to formally concede but is likely to grudgingly vacate the White House at the end of his term, according to several people around him.
Also being discussed is the possibility of more campaign-style rallies as Mr Trump tries to keep his supporters fired up despite his defeat. It was possible they would feature his family and prominent supporters, but not the president himself.
The removal of Mr Esper, the Pentagon chief, was expected by some aides to be the first of several firings by Mr Trump. Others believed to now be vulnerable include FBI Director Christopher Wray, CIA head Gina Haspel and infectious disease expert Dr Anthony Fauci.
The president was given cover to keep fighting by Mr McConnell, seen by many in the GOP as the person who may eventually need to nudge Mr Trump to the exit.
'We have the system in place to consider concerns and President Trump is 100% within his rights to look into allegations of irregularities and weigh his legal options,' Mr McConnell said.
Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer countered that the Republicans' refusal to accept the election results was 'extremely dangerous, extremely poisonous to our democracy'.
© Provided by PA Media President Donald Trump playing golf on Sunday. His public appearances have been limited since the election (Steve Helber/AP)Adding to the sense of uncertainty, the General Services Administration (GSA) held off on formally beginning the transition, preventing Mr Biden's teams from gaining access to federal agencies.
A GSA spokesman said late on Monday an 'ascertainment' on the winner of the election had not yet been made. Citing the agency's response to the extended 2000 electoral recount, it signalled that it may not do so until Mr Trump concedes or the Electoral College meets next month.
On a call with reporters on Monday night, a transition official said the Biden team believed it was time for the GSA administrator to ascertain Mr Biden is president-elect. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said legal action was 'certainly a possibility' if that did not, though there are also other options being considered.
© Provided by PA Media President-elect Joe Biden walks to his motorcade in his home town of Wilmington, Delaware on Monday (Carolyn Kaster/AP)Across the government, there were signs of a slowdown.
White House officials and Trump political appointees informed career government staffers they were not to begin acting on transition planning until the GSA approved it, according to officials familiar with the matter.
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But some elements of the federal government were mobilising to prepare for Biden to assume power. The US Secret Service and Federal Aviation Administration extended a flight restriction over Mr Biden's Delaware home through Inauguration Day. Also, Mr Biden's security detail has been bolstered with agents from the Presidential Protective Division.
© Provided by PA Media Mitch McConnell (Timothy D Easley/AP)Legal challenges already have been dismissed in battleground states like Georgia and Wisconsin. And Mr Trump's legal efforts were dealt another blow Monday when campaign adviser David Bossie, tasked with leading the effort, tested positive for the coronavirus.
Mr Bossie had been at the indoor White House election night party now being perceived as a possible super-spreader event after other attendees — including chief of staff Mark Meadows, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson and other aides — contracted the virus.
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Mr Trump's public schedule hasn't included an intelligence briefing since Oct. 1. The White House hasn't provided a 'readout' of any call between the president and a foreign leader in weeks. He hasn't met with members of the White House coronavirus task force in months. He also offered no public comment on Tropical Storm Eta lashing the Florida Keys.